Goldman Sachs analysts attempted to address a touchy subject for biotech companies, especially those involved in the pioneering “gene therapy” treatment: cures could be bad for business in the long run.
“Is curing patients a sustainable business model?” analysts ask in an April 10 report entitled “The Genome Revolution.”
Richter cited Gilead Sciences’treatments for hepatitis C, which achieved cure rates of more than 90 percent. The company’s U.S. sales for these hepatitis C treatments peaked at $12.5 billion in 2015, but have been falling ever since. Goldman estimates the U.S. sales for these treatments will be less than $4 billion this year, according to a table in the report.
“GILD is a case in point, where the success of its hepatitis C franchise has gradually exhausted the available pool of treatable patients,” the analyst wrote. “In the case of infectious diseases such as hepatitis C, curing existing patients also decreases the number of carriers able to transmit the virus to new patients, thus the incident pool also declines … Where an incident pool remains stable (eg, in cancer) the potential for a cure poses less risk to the sustainability of a franchise.”
The analyst didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The report suggested three potential solutions for biotech firms:
“Solution 1: Address large markets: Hemophilia is a $9-10bn WW market (hemophilia A, B), growing at ~6-7% annually.”
“Solution 2: Address disorders with high incidence: Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) affects the cells (neurons) in the spinal cord, impacting the ability to walk, eat, or breathe.”
“Solution 3: Constant innovation and portfolio expansion: There are hundreds of inherited retinal diseases (genetics forms of blindness) … Pace of innovation will also play a role as future programs can offset the declining revenue trajectory of prior assets.”
News
AI Breakthrough in Nanotechnology Shatters Limits of Precision
At TU Graz, a pioneering research group is leveraging artificial intelligence to drastically enhance the way nanostructures are constructed. They aim to develop a self-learning AI system that can autonomously position molecules with unprecedented precision, potentially [...]
How Missing Sleep Lets Bad Memories Haunt Your Mind
Research reveals that a lack of sleep can hinder the brain’s ability to suppress unwanted memories and intrusive thoughts, emphasizing the importance of restful sleep for mental health. Sleep deprivation has been found to [...]
WHO issues new warning over ‘mystery virus’ and calls for return of COVID restrictions
The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the reinstatement of restrictions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic as cases of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) continue to surge. While hospitals in China are overwhelmed with positive [...]
A Breath Away From a Cure: How Xenon Gas Could Transform Alzheimer’s Treatment
A breakthrough study highlights Xenon gas as a potential game-changer in treating Alzheimer’s disease, demonstrating its ability to mitigate brain damage and improve cognitive functions in mouse models. A forthcoming clinical trial aims to test its [...]
False Memories Under Fire: Surprising Science Behind What We Really Recall
New research challenges the ease of implanting false memories, highlighting flaws in the influential “Lost in the Mall” study. By reexamining the data from a previous study, researchers found that many supposed false memories [...]
Born Different? Cambridge Scientists Uncover Innate Sex Differences in Brains
Cambridge researchers found that sex differences in brain structure exist from birth, with males having more white matter and females more grey matter, highlighting early neurodiversity. Research from the Autism Research Centre at the University [...]
New study shows risk factors for dementia – virus causes deposits in the brain
Research into the causes of Alzheimer's is not yet complete. Now a new study shows that head trauma can activate herpes viruses and promote the disease. Frankfurt am Main – As a neurodegenerative disease, [...]
Are Machines Truly Thinking? Modern AI Systems Have Finally Achieved Turing’s Vision
Modern AI systems have fulfilled Turing’s vision of machines that learn and converse like humans, but challenges remain. A new paper highlights concerns about energy consumption and societal inequality while calling for more robust [...]
The Surprising Link Between Smell, Sound, and Emotions
New research reveals how smell and hearing interact in the brain to drive social behavior, using mouse maternal instincts as a model. Imagine you’re at a dinner party, but you can’t smell the food [...]
Brain cells age at different rates
As our body ages, not only joints, bones and muscles wear out, but also our nervous system. Nerve cells die, are no longer fully replaced, and the brain shrinks. "Aging is the most important risk factor [...]
Long COVID Breakthrough: Spike Proteins Persist in Brain for Years
Researchers have discovered that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein persists in the brain and skull bone marrow for years after infection, potentially leading to chronic inflammation and neurodegenerative diseases. Researchers from Helmholtz Munich and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU) have [...]
Water-Resistant Paper Could Revolutionize Packaging and Replace Plastic
A groundbreaking study showcases the creation of sustainable hydrophobic paper, enhanced by cellulose nanofibres and peptides, presenting a biodegradable alternative to petroleum-based materials, with potential uses in packaging and biomedical devices. Researchers aimed to [...]
NIH Scientists Discover Game-Changing Antibodies Against Malaria
Novel antibodies have the potential to pave the way for the next generation of malaria interventions. Researchers at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have identified a novel class of antibodies that target a previously unexplored region [...]
Surprising Discovery: What If Some Cancer Genes Are Actually Protecting You?
A surprising discovery reveals that a gene previously thought to accelerate esophageal cancer actually helps protect against it initially. This pivotal study could lead to better prediction and prevention strategies tailored to individual genetic [...]
The Cancer Test That Exposes What Conventional Scans Miss
Researchers at UCLA have unveiled startling findings using PSMA-PET imaging that reveal nearly half of patients diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer might actually have metastases missed by traditional imaging methods. This revelation could profoundly affect future [...]
Pupil size in sleep reveals how memories are processed
Cornell University researchers have found that the pupil is key to understanding how, and when, the brain forms strong, long-lasting memories. By studying mice equipped with brain electrodes and tiny eye-tracking cameras, the researchers [...]
